One of the indicators I study to quantify investor sentiment is the survey from AAII (American Association of Individual Investors). They ask how private investors feel about the stock market over the next 6 months. AAII can be seen as the American equivalent of Aktiespararna, but...
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Bear markets, where the stock market falls by more than 20%, are an inevitable part of the investment cycle. They will always happen, making them predictable in the long run. However, timing them is notoriously difficult. Attempts at timing are...
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Lecture at Financial Stockholm by co-founder Erik Martin Hansén about thoughts and ideas about strategies and how we can use methods to capture winning stocks. Contents: Common thinking errors The reason to avoid subjective technical analysis How much the stock market usually falls...
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According to Prospect Theory, developed by Kahneman and Tversky, we humans are emotionally affected by losses more than by gains. This leads to us holding on to losing stocks for too long in the hope that they will recover...
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Investors have long been fascinated by the idea of predicting which companies will deliver strong future earnings. It makes sense: if you can predict future earnings, it should be easy to beat the market. But what if I told you that...
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Technical analysis is very popular and often the first method that beginners encounter when they start trading actively, especially if they focus on short-term trading. With simple graphs and clear patterns, technical analysis seems to promise quick results and easy...
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Navigating the stock market is hard enough without being distracted by the wrong people. On Finanstwitter (or other social platforms) it is teeming with opinions, “experts” and market gurus who want to guide you – or rather, lead you astray. If you want to keep...
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Never before has so much information been available to investors. Despite the availability of information, data and powerful applications, it takes knowledge and experience to filter the noise. On social media, many people chase engagement and followers by...
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I asked a question on X about what the average decline on the Stockholm Stock Exchange has been from a peak to a trough during a calendar year since the 1980s. Most people guessed about 10%. It may sound reasonable, but it has actually been almost...
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There are many myths about the stock market and misleading information. One thing that is misleading is that we lose a lot of returns if we miss the best trading days because we try to time the market. This is something you often hear...