Don’t follow macro calls from successful investors
Many private investors make the mistake of listening too much to what famous investors say about the stock market or the economy. Of course, it sounds reasonable. If someone who has built a billion-dollar empire says the market is going to fall, why not take it seriously?
The problem is that even the most successful investors often fail when making macro forecasts. Their strength rarely lies in predicting the economy, interest rates or stock market performance. Success comes from their strategy, risk management and discipline.
A clear example of this is Stanley Druckenmiller, one of the world's most successful hedge fund managers.
Druckenmiller as an example
Stanley Druckenmiller is one of the world's most respected hedge fund managers. He became known as George Soros' right-hand man during "Black Wednesday" in 1992, when they shorted the British pound and made billions.
His hedge fund, Duquesne Capital, reportedly averaged about 30 percent annual returns over three decades without a single losing year. That's a track record that almost no one else can match. But despite this impressive record, Druckenmiller has also repeatedly made incorrect public market forecasts.
Here are some examples from recent years, taken from his public statements:
| Datum | Statement | Comment |
| 09-09-2020 | “We will see some long term down in stocks.” | The stock market rose sharply after the pandemic, one of the strongest rises in history. |
| 06-09-2022 | “Says the bear market has a ways to run and a recession is in the cards.” | The decline continued for a while, but a strong recovery came in 2023. |
| 28-09-2022 | “Sees big down in stocks in 2023.” | 2023 was instead a strong stock market year, driven by the AI boom. |
| 18-11-2022 | “Predicts hard landing.” | There was no hard landing, and the economy remained significantly stronger than expected. |
| 01-05-2023 | “Reiterates belief in hard landing in the second part of the year.” | Again: the recession did not come, the labor market remained strong. |
| 01-11-2023 | “Has massive bullish bets on 2-Year Note but bearish on long-term bonds.” | Some success in short-term interest rates, but the bond market developed mixedly. |
| 07-05-2024 | “Cuts stake in Nvidia in March as AI is overblown a bit.” | Nvidia continued to rise sharply during the year. |
| 02-10-2024 | “Staying out of China, shorting US bonds.” | Chinese stocks fell further, but the bond market was more mixed. |
| 16-10-2024 | “Implies 1970s scenario is very likely… major market crash will follow.” | No major crash occurred, the market was stronger than expected. |
| 20-01-2025 | “Doesn’t have strong opinion about stocks… economy seems good for next 6 months.” | From previously strongly pessimistic to more neutral. |
Source: Tickernomics
What can we learn from this?
Druckenmiller is one of the best ever at asset management. His long-term returns are phenomenal. But his public statements about the stock market have often been wrong, sometimes grossly wrong. It shows that even the best in the world cannot predict macro consistently.
Despite the low accuracy, forecasts will always exist. The media profits from dramatic headlines that attract clicks and viewers, and we humans are drawn to storytelling that gives a sense of meaning. Experts gain attention and strengthen their brand through confident statements, while the audience gets the illusion of control in an uncertain world.
Forecasts thus fulfill both a commercial and psychological need, but that does not make them more reliable.
Conclusion
When a famous investor makes a statement about the stock market, it is just a statement. Their success is not based on being able to predict the future, but on systematicity, strict risk management and long-term strategies. Feel free to listen to their philosophy and experiences, but do not follow their macro calls.
Our goal is not to deliver yet more predictions about where the stock market is headed. Instead, we want to provide a deeper understanding of the market and show how to use robust, rule-based strategies that work without forecasts of the future. For us, success is not about being right about the next stock market swing, but about consistently following a method that stands up through different market climates.
